Resource stewardship

Pessimistic views 

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), theory of population

Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

• Thomas Robert Malthus was born near Guildford (England) in 1766. Malthus went on to Cambridge University, earning a master’s degree and became a professor of history and political economy in Hertfordshire.
• He was the first economist to propose a systematic theory of population.  He articulated his views regarding population in his famous book, Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

Although Reverend Malthus grew up during the Industrial Revolution, he was a product of traditional Europe-that is, preindustrial, pre-growth society. He believed that economic life depended on the productivity of land, so that ultimately it was the land that determined the level of existence.

He believed that there was a finite optimum population size in relation to food supply and that any increase in population beyond this point (Malthusian Catastrophe) would lead to a decline in the standard of living and to war, famine and disease.

His theory was based on two principles:

1. In the absence of checks, population would grow at a geometric or exponential rate (1, 2,4,8,16, 32, 64, 128, 254 and so forth)
2. Food supply at best only increase at an arithmetic rate (1,2,3,4,5)

Effects on Family size and subsistence level of income

Malthus convinced that the “passion between sexes” would cause men and women to procreate, and as long as there was enough food around to feed a growing family, the family size would increase. If the family does not obtain at least subsistence level of income some of the children will die because the parents would not be able to feed them. Once they fall below point D, widespread famines occur and there would be numerous deaths in the society, according to the Malthusian doctrine

Anti Malthusian–Resource Optimist view

Danish economist Esther Boserup (1910-1999) who believed and popularized “necessity is the mother of invention”

Boserup examinated different landuse systems (from shifting cultivation to multicropping system) and their intensity of production. In her famous book, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure, Boserup suggested that in a pre-industrial society, an increase in population stimulated a change in agricultural techniques so that more food would be produced. Population growth will thus enable agricultural development to occur.

Increased food production since Malthus time (support for Boserup’s proposition)

There have been many ways since Malthus time by which food production have increased many folds. These include:

• Intensification
• Extensification
• Draining marshland
• Reclaiming land from sea
• Cross breeding and high yield varieties
• Slope terracing
• Greenhouse agriculture
• Improved irrigation techniques
• New food such as soy
• Using artificial fertilizer and pesticides
• Crop diversification etc

Anti-Malthusian: Balanced view of Julian Simon

The Ultimate Resource (1981)

• Simon challenged the Malthusian catastrophe—that an increase in population has negative economic consequences;
• Population growth will drive up demand for resources and the price will rise. High price will encourage entrepreneurs to find out new resources.
• According to Simon, ingenious, resourceful humans had the capacity to invent and to safe guard growing population

Pessimistic views of the Neo-Malthusian (Revival of Malthusian concept)

Paul Ehrlich- the population Bomb, 1968

• Ehrlich, a biologist, maintained that the rate of population growth was outstripping agricultural growth and the capacity for renewal of Earth’s resources.
• Each year food production in the underdeveloped countries falls behind their rapid population growth and people go to bed hungrier.
• The battle to feed all of humanity is over. Population growth on Earth is still too high, and will eventually lead to a serious crisis. He warned that millions of people would starve to death in spite of any crash program embarked upon.

Neo- Malthusian view of the Club of Rome

The club of Rome was a global think tank, comprising heads of the states, high level bureaucrats, diplomats and scientist, economists and business leaders. Club of Rome signifies a group of world citizens, sharing a common concern for the future of humanity.

• Started to act as a global catalyst for change
• Identification and analysis of crucial problems that humanity is facing
• To influence public and private decision makers
• Raised considerable public attention with its report Limit to Growth

Limit to Growth project- commissioned by the Club of Rome

The project was produced by the System Dynamic group of MIT from 1970-1972, funded by Volkswagen Foundation of Germany and was headed by Dennis Meadow and others of MIT.

They used system dynamic theory and computer modelling to predict the earth’s carrying capacity.

The Limit to growth was determined on the basis of the five following factors

1. Population
2. Agricultural production
3. Natural resources
4. Industrial production
5. Pollution

Many of these factors were observed to grow at an exponential rate. It demonstrates the short period of time within which corrective action to be taken. If the predicted growth is correct then there is an alarmingly short time for preventive action.